Monitoring the Belarusian Railway: Freight Transport 2017–2023

The freight transport data we present have not been published by Belarusian Railway, the Ministry of Transport, or Belstat in Belarus for some time. All we have been able to find from Belstat are aggregate freight turnover* values for all modes of transport. Therefore, we believe it is highly useful to know what is actually happening in freight transport on Belarusian Railway.

In 2023, despite the boastful statements of the illegitimate authorities, Belarusian Railway freight transport does not look positive.

We analyze the eight months of 2023** in comparison with the same period in 2022, including by type of service.

Freight turnover. Overall performance is 93.6%, including:

• import – 84.3%;
• export – 125.0%;
• transit – 63.9%;
• domestic (local) – 98.9%.

Freight turnover for the eight months of 2022–2023, including by type of service:

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

Freight carried (transport volumes). Overall performance is 94.5%, including:

• import – 90.8%;
• export – 116.1%;
• transit – 63.0%;
• domestic (local) – 100.4%.

Freight carried (volumes) for the eight months of 2022–2023, including by type of service:

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

Container freight transport. Overall performance is 79.7%:

• import – 134.7%;
• export – 127.9%;
• transit – 43.6%;
• domestic (local) – 171.7%.

Containers carried for the eight months of 2022–2023, including by type of service:

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

– August 2023 – forecast

Over the eight months of 2023, freight transport overall lags behind last year across all three indicators. At the same time, the large shortfall in transit is partially offset by increased export of freight. The trend corresponds to the authorities' policy of intensifying the export of key national export products: fertilizers, petroleum products, and timber.

There is also growth in container transport across all services except transit, where there is a sustained and uncompensated decline.

In the period under review, 2017–2023 (taking into account the estimated forecast for 2023**), the overall trend of declining freight turnover has persisted since 2018 (down to 71.6% compared to 2018), as well as declining volumes of freight carried (down to 67.5%). The only exception is container freight transport.

Freight turnover and freight carried overall for 2017–2023:

We analyze by type of service in comparison with 2018.

Freight turnover:

• import – decreased from 5,191 to 3,698 million tonne-km (71.2%);
• export – decreased from 16,866 to 14,397 million tonne-km (85.4%);
• transit – decreased from 19,625 to 8,106 million tonne-km (41.3%);
• domestic (local) – generally stable with slight growth in the forecast 2023, from 10,891 to 11,437 million tonne-km (105.0%).

Freight carried (transport volumes):

• import – decreased from 19,292 thousand tonnes to 13,069 thousand tonnes (67.7%);
• export – decreased from 53,364 to 38,634 thousand tonnes (72.4%);
• transit – decreased from 48,669 to 17,584 thousand tonnes (36.1%);
• domestic (local) – generally stable with slight growth in the forecast 2023, from 35,838 to 36,752 thousand tonnes (102.6%).

Container transport (in TEU – Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) overall shows a growth trend. However, peak volumes occurred in 2021 (more than 1,251 thousand TEU), followed by a decline. But if we consider from the baseline year of 2018 adopted for all freight, this represents an increase from 636 to 1,001 thousand TEU (157.4%).

The growth is driven by a significant increase in transit container transport. However, by 2023 the situation with container transit has sharply deteriorated. If in the peak year of 2021 such transport totaled approximately one million TEU with a 75% share of the total volume, the current forecast is only one-third, with a 33% share.

Shares of container transport by type of service for 2021 and 2023:

Container transport by type of service in 2017–2023 is as follows:

• import – increase from 68.6 to 311.7 thousand TEU (4.5 times);
• export – increase from 75.0 to 280.2 thousand TEU (3.7 times);
• transit – decrease from 364.0 to 331.9 thousand TEU (91.2%);
• domestic (local) – increase from 16.5 to 77.3 thousand TEU (4.7 times).

To reflect the overall situation in the country in comparison with Belarusian Railway, we present Belstat statistics on freight turnover for all modes of transport for 2019–2022. Which, as with Belarusian Railway, is continuously declining. In 2019 it was 130,842 million tonne-km or 94.2% compared to 2018, in 2020 – 123,158 million tonne-km or 94.1%, in 2021 – 118,776 million tonne-km or 96.4%, in 2022 – 88,625 million tonne-km or 74.6%. For the seven months of 2023 – 41,278 million tonne-km or 77.6% compared to the same period in 2022. On Belarusian Railway for the same seven months, freight turnover performed at 92.3%.

However, the decline trend for Belarusian Railway is less intensive, which allows us to speak of some reorientation and substitution of freight transport from other modes to rail.

10.1. Исходные данные показателей грузовых перевозок за двенадцать месяцев 2022 и восемь месяцев 2023 гг.

10.2. Исходные данные показателей грузовых перевозок 2017 - 2023 гг.

* Freight turnover is the volume of transport work in carrying freight. It is determined by summing the products of the mass of freight carried in tonnes and the distance of transport, with subsequent summation of these products across all transport positions. The unit of measurement is the tonne-kilometre (tonne-km), that is, the movement of 1 tonne of freight over a distance of 1 kilometer. This is the primary economic indicator of transport performance.
** For 2023 we have only reporting data for an incomplete eight months. However, the remaining days of August are unlikely to introduce fundamental changes. Therefore, based on established trends, we have proposed an estimated forecast, including for the entire year 2023. We are aware that four months remain, and without data on planning or freight volumes under current contracts, our estimated forecast is highly conditional and based on corresponding average daily indicators for the eight months. This does not account for the traditional trend of increased transport toward year-end. Various external factors also cannot be excluded, such as non-fulfillment of major supply contracts, possible border blockades by neighboring EU countries, or events of a military-political nature. The remaining figures are taken from insider reporting data used by Belarusian Railway and the Ministry of Transport. Long-standing practice has proven that this “operational” reporting is very close to and even consistent with Belstat statistical data.